View F1 · Projections
2026 projections · ours vs Sleeper
Our LightGBM model — trained on 1999–2025player-seasons with lagged production, age, and volume features — projecting next-year fantasy PPG, side-by-side with Sleeper’s public projections. Walk-forward cross-validation MAE: 2.13 PPG. Sort by delta to see where we disagree most.
Position
Ours = LightGBM (MAE 2.13 PPG) adjusted to your scoring · Sleeper 2026 PPR · click headers to sort
#AgeΔ
1Bijan RobinsonATL24
21.5
+0.7———15.1–22.3
2Jahmyr GibbsDET24
19.7
-1.2———16.4–21.1
3Christian McCaffreySF30
19.7
+10.316.2+3.56.716.0–22.5
4De'Von AchaneMIA25
17.9
+2.9———13.1–20.3
5Jonathan TaylorIND27
17.8
+2.4———13.8–20.9
6Chase BrownCIN26
15.5
+0.0———12.3–17.7
7James CookBUF27
15.5
+1.2———11.8–18.7
8Ashton JeantyLV23
15.0
+11.2———10.0–18.3
9Saquon BarkleyPHI29
14.8
-7.913.5+1.319.511.4–18.1
10Omarion HamptonLAC23
14.5
+11.5———9.2–16.9
11Cam SkatteboNYG24
14.3
+13.0———9.0–16.0
12Joe MixonHOU30
14.0
+2.01.6+12.4204.610.3–16.3
13Kyren WilliamsLA26
13.9
-1.5———10.2–17.9
14Quinshon JudkinsCLE23
13.6
+10.3———7.3–15.2
15TreVeyon HendersonNE24
13.5
+10.1———7.5–14.6
16Josh JacobsGB28
13.3
-1.7———10.0–15.9
17Javonte WilliamsDAL26
13.0
+6.8———8.8–15.9
18Derrick HenryBAL32
13.0
-3.113.5-0.634.511.0–17.0
19Breece HallNYJ25
12.8
-0.8———8.4–15.0
20D'Andre SwiftCHI27
12.6
+2.0———8.5–13.6
21James ConnerARI31
12.4
-0.53.3+9.1128.69.8–15.8
22Travis EtienneJAX27
12.2
+6.7———9.1–16.8
23Rico DowdleCAR28
11.9
+0.5———8.0–12.8
24RJ HarveyDEN25
11.8
+9.4———8.3–15.0
25Jaylen WarrenPIT28
11.7
+5.3———9.0–14.5
26Tony PollardTEN29
11.4
-1.0———7.3–12.6
27Najee HarrisPIT28
11.2
+0.1———7.0–12.9
28Austin EkelerWAS31
11.1
-1.51.8+9.3999.07.3–13.0
29Rhamondre StevensonNE28
10.9
+1.0———7.5–12.8
30Kenneth Walker IIISEA26
10.8
-2.8———8.0–13.2
31Alvin KamaraNO31
10.6
-7.92.6+8.0157.76.0–14.8
32David MontgomeryDET29
10.5
-4.9———6.8–12.9
33Dylan SampsonCLE22
10.2
+3.6———4.4–12.1
34Rachaad WhiteTB27
10.2
-3.9———6.1–12.7
35Kyle MonangaiCHI24
10.2
+7.6———4.7–12.7
36Aaron JonesMIN32
10.0
-3.67.9+2.1122.36.0–12.5
37Bucky IrvingTB24
9.9
-0.8———8.9–15.5
38Woody MarksHOU26
9.7
+7.6———4.6–14.4
39Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG27
9.6
-0.2———6.4–13.0
40Kenneth GainwellPIT27
9.6
+6.0———9.2–13.2
41Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS25
9.1
+7.7———4.3–12.0
42Zach CharbonnetSEA25
9.1
+1.6———6.0–12.9
43J.K. DobbinsDEN28
8.8
-1.8———5.7–12.4
44Tyjae SpearsTEN25
8.7
-1.8———5.6–13.4
45Chuba HubbardCAR27
8.6
-6.9———5.9–13.6
46Alexander MattisonLV28
8.4
+0.8———5.2–12.2
47Jordan MasonMIN27
8.2
-1.5———4.0–10.6
48Jaydon BlueDAL22
7.8
+3.9———1.9–10.6
49Zack MossCIN29
7.8
-2.8———5.0–12.4
50Kareem HuntKC31
7.7
-2.71.3+6.4999.04.6–10.0
51Bhayshul TutenJAX23
7.5
+5.2———2.3–10.6
52Kimani VidalLAC25
7.4
+4.8———3.7–11.9
53Tyler AllgeierATL26
7.4
+0.9———3.8–10.6
54Isiah PachecoKC27
7.1
-1.2———3.4–12.3
55Audric EstiméNO23
7.0
+3.9———4.2–13.2
56Michael CarterARI27
7.0
+2.8———3.7–11.0
57Ollie Gordon IIMIA22
7.0
+2.8———2.1–8.6
58Bam KnightARI25
6.9
-0.7———3.7–11.9
59Trey BensonARI24
6.8
+2.2———5.2–12.2
60Devin NealNO23
6.7
+4.8———3.6–11.2
61Jawhar JordanHOU27
6.5
+5.7———3.0–11.3
62Jaylen WrightMIA23
6.5
+3.0———1.8–10.1
63Devin SingletaryNYG29
6.3
+0.3———4.2–9.2
64Jerome FordCLE27
6.3
-5.6———3.4–8.3
65Nick ChubbHOU31
6.1
-2.31.6+4.6999.03.4–9.7
66Samaje PerineCIN31
6.1
+0.91.8+4.3999.02.5–9.1
67Tank BigsbyPHI24
6.0
-4.2———1.9–9.2
68Brashard SmithKC23
6.0
+2.3———3.0–7.5
69Justice HillBAL29
5.9
-1.3———3.6–8.7
70Emari DemercadoARI27
5.9
+0.8———2.5–9.3
71Isaiah DavisNYJ24
5.9
+0.3———2.8–9.2
72Kendre MillerNO24
5.8
+0.0———2.3–9.4
73Blake CorumLA26
5.7
+5.0———2.9–9.6
74Sincere McCormickLV26
5.7
+5.3———2.6–11.1
75Gus EdwardsLAC31
5.7
-4.70.0+5.7999.02.6–9.4
76D'Onta ForemanCLE30
5.7
-6.30.0+5.7999.02.3–8.8
77Miles SandersDAL29
5.6
-0.2———3.5–9.0
78AJ DillonPHI28
5.5
-5.4———1.6–8.2
79Ezekiel ElliottDAL31
5.5
-4.20.0+5.5999.02.3–9.2
80Kaleb JohnsonPIT23
5.4
+0.8———0.9–5.4
Source · Sleeper public projections fetched 2026-04-25 · P10–P90 bands from a quantile LightGBM trained alongside the point model. Hover any column header for an explanation.