View F1 · Projections
2026 projections · ours vs Sleeper
Our LightGBM model — trained on 1999–2025player-seasons with lagged production, age, and volume features — projecting next-year fantasy PPG, side-by-side with Sleeper’s public projections. Walk-forward cross-validation MAE: 2.13 PPG. Sort by delta to see where we disagree most.
Position
Ours = LightGBM (MAE 2.13 PPG) adjusted to your scoring · Sleeper 2026 PPR · click headers to sort
#AgeΔ
1Bijan RobinsonATL24
21.5
+0.718.1+3.52.014.9–22.5
2Jahmyr GibbsDET24
20.8
-1.218.4+2.41.316.0–21.2
3Christian McCaffreySF30
20.1
+10.316.2+3.95.015.8–22.7
4De'Von AchaneMIA25
17.6
+2.914.3+3.313.513.5–20.4
5Jonathan TaylorIND27
17.2
+2.415.1+2.17.014.2–20.5
6Chase BrownCIN26
15.6
+0.014.2+1.414.012.4–18.6
7James CookBUF27
14.9
+1.214.5+0.48.911.6–18.1
8Ashton JeantyLV23
14.7
+11.213.0+1.716.010.4–18.2
9Saquon BarkleyPHI29
14.1
-7.913.7+0.412.611.5–18.5
10TreVeyon HendersonNE24
14.0
+10.19.5+4.559.27.7–15.0
11Josh JacobsGB28
13.8
-1.74.8+9.046.99.7–16.7
12Cam SkatteboNYG24
13.5
+13.011.2+2.340.18.5–16.1
13Omarion HamptonLAC23
13.4
+11.513.5-0.015.39.0–16.6
14Derrick HenryBAL32
13.4
-3.113.7-0.317.511.2–17.3
15D'Andre SwiftCHI27
13.3
+2.011.6+1.851.68.6–13.9
16Quinshon JudkinsCLE23
13.3
+10.310.9+2.453.37.2–15.4
17Breece HallNYJ25
13.0
-0.811.7+1.334.38.6–15.0
18Kyren WilliamsLAR26
12.7
-1.511.6+1.126.39.9–17.5
19Javonte WilliamsDAL26
12.6
+6.811.8+0.832.38.7–16.3
20Jaylen WarrenPIT28
12.5
+5.39.5+3.071.79.2–14.6
21RJ HarveyDEN25
12.2
+9.48.0+4.180.28.3–15.1
22James ConnerARI31
12.0
-0.53.2+8.8230.810.0–16.0
23Travis EtienneNO27
11.8
+6.711.5+0.243.38.8–16.6
24Najee HarrisNYG28
11.3
+0.11.5+9.8220.47.0–12.9
25Rico DowdlePIT28
11.2
+0.58.9+2.286.17.8–13.2
26Kenneth WalkerKC26
11.1
-2.813.6-2.519.87.9–14.2
27Tony PollardTEN29
11.0
-1.08.9+2.184.47.3–12.6
28Rhamondre StevensonNE28
10.7
+1.09.4+1.378.97.7–12.7
29Alvin KamaraNO31
10.6
-7.93.5+7.1167.25.9–14.4
30Kyle MonangaiCHI24
10.5
+7.68.6+1.9105.04.6–12.2
31Bucky IrvingTB24
10.4
-0.811.0-0.542.69.1–14.5
32Kenny GainwellTB27
10.3
+6.08.5+1.9111.79.0–12.8
33Rachaad WhiteWAS27
10.1
-3.97.1+2.9134.35.8–12.6
34Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS25
10.0
+7.77.1+2.9115.64.3–12.0
35Dylan SampsonCLE22
9.8
+3.64.9+4.9188.44.4–12.9
36Aaron JonesMIN32
9.8
-3.67.6+2.1127.76.1–12.5
37Woody MarksHOU26
9.5
+7.64.7+4.9147.74.8–13.7
38David MontgomeryHOU29
9.5
-4.911.4-2.047.76.7–12.5
39Tyrone TracyNYG27
9.3
-0.26.2+3.1174.26.3–12.7
40Chuba HubbardCAR27
8.9
-6.98.2+0.779.75.6–12.6
41Tyjae SpearsTEN25
8.6
-1.86.4+2.2165.65.8–13.4
42J.K. DobbinsDEN28
8.5
-1.88.9-0.492.75.4–12.2
43Zach CharbonnetSEA25
8.4
+1.63.7+4.7152.56.2–12.0
44Isiah PachecoDET27
8.3
-1.23.0+5.4192.83.3–11.5
45Jordan MasonMIN27
7.8
-1.58.5-0.7109.13.6–11.0
46Ollie GordonMIA22
7.7
+2.81.3+6.4—2.0–8.6
47Bhayshul TutenJAX23
7.6
+5.29.7-2.161.12.0–10.4
48Kimani VidalLAC25
7.5
+4.83.3+4.2237.83.8–12.3
49Jaydon BluePHI22
7.1
+3.93.1+4.0228.61.6–10.3
50Michael CarterTEN27
7.1
+2.80.5+6.6686.53.9–10.9
51Jawhar JordanHOU27
7.0
+5.71.5+5.5—2.7–11.0
52Tyler AllgeierARI26
7.0
+0.94.3+2.7143.73.7–10.1
53Audric EstimeNO23
6.9
+3.91.3+5.7237.44.0–13.2
54Zonovan KnightARI25
6.9
-0.70.0+6.9—3.9–11.7
55Trey BensonARI24
6.8
+2.20.0+6.8255.24.9–12.4
56Brashard SmithKC23
6.4
+2.31.5+4.9226.33.1–6.8
57Devin SingletaryNYG29
6.3
+0.31.7+4.7—4.0–9.6
58Jerome FordWAS27
6.2
-5.60.0+6.2—3.4–8.6
59Isaiah DavisNYJ24
6.2
+0.33.4+2.8—2.9–8.8
60Samaje PerineCIN31
6.1
+0.93.9+2.3—2.6–8.9
61Justice HillBAL29
6.0
-1.33.8+2.2—3.8–8.8
62Kendre MillerNO24
5.9
+0.00.3+5.6224.82.4–9.2
63Blake CorumLAR26
5.9
+5.07.5-1.6100.32.7–9.5
64Jaylen WrightMIA23
5.8
+3.02.5+3.4247.92.0–9.9
65AJ DillonCAR28
5.8
-5.40.0+5.8—1.4–8.1
66Ty JohnsonBUF29
5.7
+0.13.1+2.6—3.4–6.8
67Sincere McCormickSF26
5.6
+5.30.0+5.6—2.4–10.9
68Emari DemercadoDAL27
5.5
+0.82.0+3.5—2.5–10.0
69Kaleb JohnsonGB23
5.4
+0.81.8+3.7214.20.9–5.7
70Tank BigsbyPHI24
5.3
-4.23.6+1.7181.01.8–10.3
71Braelon AllenNYJ22
5.2
-0.62.9+2.3208.01.9–8.5
72Malik DavisDAL28
5.0
-0.93.8+1.2—1.9–8.9
73Emanuel WilsonSEA27
4.9
-0.33.1+1.8250.32.8–9.1
74Sean TuckerTB25
4.8
+1.42.9+1.9243.92.6–8.0
75Chris RodriguezJAX27
4.7
+3.17.4-2.6141.52.0–10.0
76Zavier ScottCHI27
4.7
+2.30.3+4.4693.02.0–7.1
77Dameon PiercePHI26
4.7
-3.40.2+4.4—0.9–6.8
78Keaton MitchellLAC24
4.6
+2.15.4-0.7184.62.5–8.9
79Jeremy McNicholsWAS31
4.6
-0.70.5+4.1—2.9–7.7
80Carson SteelePHI24
4.6
+1.30.0+4.6629.51.4–7.2
Source · Sleeper public projections fetched 2026-09-08 · P10–P90 bands from a quantile LightGBM trained alongside the point model. Hover any column header for an explanation.